![]() The factors which will lead to a healthy growth trend this year are: full economic reopening in 2022, which is leading to a cyclical recovery in consumption pickup in private capex with healthy balance sheets of corporates and financial sector players and acceleration in government capex." "In this context, we believe that the trends in incoming data are consistent with our view of GDP growth at 6.2% in FY24. But the January data show an improvement both annualised and sequentially, they argued. While the budget has not offered a clear GDP growth number for next fiscal, saying it is likely to grow in 6–6.5% range, the Reserve Bank of India, in its latest assessment, has pencilled in a 6.4% growth next fiscal.Īdmitting that the high-frequency growth data have been mixed in the last quarter, showing some signs of slowdown, the economists blamed the same on a combination of base effect and distortions from festivals, which led to a bunching up of demand and loss of production days to holidays. A Wall Street brokerage has downplayed the slowdown fears arising after the poor December quarter data prints, saying the moderate numbers are due to the base effect and that the January data clearly show that domestic demand drivers are intact.Īccording to Morgan Stanley India Chief Economist Upasana Chachra and her deputy Bani Gambhir, the apparent deceleration in the December quarter number come from the mixed trends in high frequency domestic demand indicators coupled with a slowdown in external demand as visible from shrinking exports, creating fears of an impending growth slowdown.Īccordingly, they choose to stand out, expecting a 6.2% growth in the gross domestic product in the next fiscal as against the 6% consensus forecasts, reiterating their view that domestic demand is likely to sustain the growth momentum. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |